Cisco: The Internet Will Be Four Times as Large in Four Years

Annual Cisco Visual Networking Index Forecast expects Internet Traffic in Asia Pacific to grow 4-fold from 2011 to 2016 with 8 billion networked devices across the region

KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia – June 20, 2012 – Cisco issued results of the annual Cisco® Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast (2011-2016), the company’s ongoing initiative to forecast and analyze Internet Protocol (IP) networking growth and trends worldwide. The VNI Forecast update covers 2011-2016, and quantitatively projects the significant amount of IP traffic expected to travel public and private networks, including Internet, managed IP, and mobile data traffic generated by consumers and business users.

By 2016, annual global IP traffic is forecast to be 1.3 zettabytes (a zettabyte is equal to a sextillion bytes, or a trillion gigabytes), nearly a fourfold increase from 2011. The average global IP traffic in 2016 is expected to reach 150 petabytes per hour, the equivalent of 278 million people streaming an HD movie at an average streaming speed of 1.2Mbps simultaneously.

This significant level of traffic growth and service penetration is driven by a number of factors, including:

1. An increasing number of devices: The proliferation of tablets, mobile phones, and other smart devices as well as machine-to-machine (M2M) connections are driving up the demand for connectivity. By 2016, the forecast projects there will be nearly 18.9 billion network connections – almost 2.5 connections for each person on earth, compared with 10.3 billion in 2011.
2. More Internet users: By 2016, there are expected to be 3.4 billion Internet users – about 45 percent of the world's projected population according to United Nations estimates.
3. Faster broadband speeds: The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase nearly fourfold, from 9 Mbps in 2011 to 34 Mbps in 2016.
4. More video: By 2016, 1.2 million video minutes would travel the Internet every second – that is equivalent of 833 days (or over two years)
5. Wi-Fi growth: By 2016, over half of the world’s Internet traffic is expected to come from Wi-Fi connections.

Suraj Shetty, vice president of product and solutions marketing, Cisco said, “Each of us increasingly connects to the network via multiple devices in our always-on connected lifestyles. Whether by video phone calls, movies on tablets, web-enabled TVs, or desktop video conferencing, the sum of our actions not only creates demand for zettabytes of bandwidth, but also dramatically changes the network requirements needed to deliver on the expectations of this ‘new normal’.”

Asia Pacific to Generate the Most IP Traffic

By 2016, the Asia Pacific region is forecast to generate the most IP traffic (40.5 exabytes per month), maintaining the top spot over North America (27.5 exabytes per month), which generated the second most amount of traffic. The region’s Internet traffic is expected to grow four-fold from 2011 to 2016 with a compound annual growth rate of 32 percent.

The average Internet traffic in Asia Pacific will reach 112 Tbps (terabytes per second) in 2016, which is the equivalent of over 93.7 million people streaming Internet HD video simultaneously. Internet video traffic is expected to contribute to 49 percent of all consumer Internet video traffic in 2016.

The proliferation of connected devices in Asia Pacific is consistent with the global trends observed. There will be 8 billion networked devices in 2016, up from 4 billion in 2011. In addition, there will be 1.9 networked devices per capita in 2016.

According to Yuri Wahab, Cisco’s managing director for Malaysia, findings of the Cisco VNI reaffirm the importance to prepare for the challenges and opportunities resulted from the data and IP traffic explosion.

“Today, networks remain an essential part of business, education, government and home communications in Malaysia and the region. Many residential, enterprise, and mobile networking trends are being driven largely by a combination of video, social networking and advanced collaboration applications,” said Yuri.

“Organisations need to have the right network infrastructure and technology in place to embrace the trends, create new services and increase productivity by capitalising on various BYOD (Bring Your Own Devices), cloud and virtualisation applications. It is also timely for the public and private sector to intensify initiatives around high-tech infrastructure development to support the endless appetite for bandwidth. This is crucial in raising our competitiveness and transforming the nation into a digital economy.”

Globally, business Internet users are projected to grow from 1.6 billion in 2011 to 2.3 billion by 2016. Desktop videoconferencing is projected to be the fastest-growing service, with 36.4 million users in 2011, increasing to 218.9 million users in 2016. Business mobile location-based services (LBS) are forecast to be the fastest-growing business mobile service, with 27 million users in 2011, increasing to 158 million users by 2016.

Additional Global Highlights

• Consumer video will be global growth driver of Internet traffic: Globally, there are expected to be 1.5 billion Internet video users by 2016, up from 792 million Internet video users in 2011.
• The way consumers and businesses access and use the Internet is changing: In 2011, PCs generated 94 percent of consumer Internet traffic. This contribution is expected to fall to 81 percent by 2016, demonstrating the impact that an increasing number and variety of tablets/ smartphones are having on how consumers and businesses access and use the Internet.
• Web-enabled TVs as a viable online option for consumers: By 2016, TVs are expected to account for over 6 percent of global consumer Internet traffic (up from 4 percent in 2011), and 18 percent of Internet video traffic (up from 7 percent in 2011). Digital TV is expected to be the fastest-growing digital television service, going from 694 million subscribers in 2011 to 1.3 billion subscribers in 2016. Global advanced video traffic, including three-dimensional (3-D) and high-definition TV (HDTV), is projected to increase five times between 2011 and 2016.
• Widespread use of IP video conferencing: Business IP video conferencing is projected to grow sixfold over the forecast period, growing more than two times as fast as overall business IP traffic, at a CAGR of 42 percent from 2011 to 2016.
• IPv6 enabled: Globally, the index suggests there will be 8 billion IPv6-capable fixed and mobile devices in 2016, up from 1 billion in 2011. 40 percent of all fixed and mobile networked devices will be IPv6-capable in 2016, up from 10 percent in 2011.

Global Addressable Market and Service Adoption Highlights

• Residential
o There were 1.7 billion residential Internet users with fixed Internet access in 2011; the index forecasts there will be 2.3 billion residential Internet users with fixed Internet access by 2016.
o Voice over IP (VoIP) is projected to be the fastest-growing residential Internet service, going from 560 million users in 2011to 928 million users in 2016.
o Online Music is expected to be the most highly penetrated residential Internet service – In 2011 there were 1.1 billion users (63 percent of residential Internet users); in 2016 there are forecast to be 1.8 billion users (79 percent of residential Internet users).
• Consumer Mobile
o Mobile consumers are forecast to grow from 3.7 billion in 2011 to 4.5 billion by 2016.
o Mobile video is projected to be the fastest-growing consumer mobile service, going from 271 million users in 2011 to 1.6 billion users in 2016.
o The Index suggests consumer SMS will be the most highly penetrated consumer mobile service – In 2011, there were 2.8 billion users (74 percent of consumer mobile users), increasing to 4.1 billion users (90 percent of consumer mobile users) by 2016.