Global mobile broadband subscribers up 84% to 186m but downturn

Mobile broadband booming but downturn will help delay LTE takeoff to 2013

Released: 19th March 2009
The mobile broadband market exploded in the last year, driving majorincreases in mobile operator data subscribers and revenues, and will play anincreasingly central role in the success of the mobile industry, accordingto Future Mobile Broadband: HSPA and EV-DO to LTE Networks, Devices andServices, a new strategic report from Informa Telecoms & Media.

“Mobile broadband has become one of the key growth engines for the mobileindustry, with 186 million mobile broadband subscribers worldwide at the endof 2008, up 84% from 101 million at end-2007,” says Mike Roberts, PrincipalAnalyst at Informa Telecoms & Media and lead author of the Future MobileBroadband report. “By 2013 mobile broadband subscribers will representalmost one-third of total mobile subscribers worldwide.”

The mobile broadband boom was triggered by the combination of widespreadmobile broadband network coverage, appealing devices such as USB modems andthe iPhone 3G, and competitive flat-rate tariffs. “Flat-rate mobilebroadband services with widespread coverage and new devices such as USBmodems and the iPhone 3G are a runaway success, and have made mobilebroadband one of the most significant strategic and commercial opportunitiesin the converging mobile and broadband markets,” Roberts says.

Future Mobile Broadband finds that at the end of 2008 there were more than400 commercial mobile broadband networks worldwide supporting thousands ofdifferent mobile and portable devices and generating billions of dollars inoperator revenues. “For many mobile operators, mobile broadband is drivingsustained increases in data ARPU. That in turn is key to increasing overallrevenues, given ongoing declines in voice ARPU.”

The mobile broadband markets in the US, Japan and Korea saw phenomenalgrowth in 2008, which led the three markets combined to account for themajority of global mobile broadband subscribers by the end of the year.“The US, Japan and Korea dominated the global market in 2008, but this ischanging fast as mobile broadband becomes a mass-market service worldwide,”Roberts says.

For example, all the pieces are falling into place for China Mobile’sTD-SCDMA mobile broadband service to gain traction by 2010, and thattogether with new HSPA, EV-DO and TD-LTE services will drive the country tobecome the second-largest mobile broadband market worldwide in 2013,according to Future Mobile Broadband forecasts. India will be thefourth-largest market in 2013, following BSNL’s launch of EV-DO mobilebroadband services in 2008 and BSNL’s and MTNL’s expected launch of HSDPAservices in late 2009.

However, mobile broadband will not be immune from the economic downturn,which will pile the pressure on beleaguered equipment vendors and force someoperators to scale back or delay major investments, particularly innext-generation systems such as LTE.

“There’s no doubt that the downturn will delay LTE deployments, with majoroperators already citing it as a key factor leading them to push LTE launchdates to 2011-12,” Roberts says. “Major operators such as Verizon Wirelessand NTT DoCoMo are still committed to launching LTE in 2010, but the economywill still be tough then, which could hit rollout schedules and takeup. Manyoperators are also realizing that HSPA and HSPA+ upgrades should meet theirneeds for the next few years, and will cost a lot less than LTE rollouts.The net result is that the LTE subscribers will not start taking off until2013.”

However, the overall outlook for the mobile broadband market is good.“Mobile broadband is already a must-have service for many consumers andbusinesses, which helps to explain why it will be one of the strongestmobile segments throughout the downturn,” Roberts says. “We’ve fullyrevised all our forecasts in light of the economic downturn, but we’restill expecting strong growth through 2013 in mobile broadband subscribers,device unit sales and operator data revenues.”